Photo : Martin Sylvest/Ritzau Scanpix via AP
12 November 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #356
IN FOCUS
Denmark Elections 2022: Election result, Campaign issues and challenge
By Sai Pranav
Elections result
On 01 November, in the early election held in Denmark Social Democrats’ Mette Fredriksen won to serve as Denmark’s Prime Minister for the second time. The major parties in the election were the centre-left Social Democrats, the centre-right Liberals, the conservative Christian Democrats, and the centrist Moderates. The minimum threshold for a party to be part of Denmark’s parliament, Folketinget, is two per cent of votes. The left-leaning “red” bloc that Mette Fredriksen heads won 90 seats out of 179 seats, while the Social Democrats won 50 seats. The second party with a majority in the Folketinget is the Liberal Party (Venstre), headed by Jakob Ellemann-Jensen with 23 seats. Former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s newly formed moderates surprisingly increased with 16 seats becoming the third largest party. One of the primary contenders, Soren Pape Poulsen’s Christian Democrats, failed no seats.
Why did Denmark conduct an early election?
The minks population culling. During the COVID-19 pandemic in November 2020, Fredriksen decided that the government cull the mink population in Denmark, which resulted in her receiving backlash from the public after a report on the incident was released. The government killed over 15 million minks without legal basis due to the fear that a novel coronavirus strain might mutate and spread among humans. The mink killing affected the fur farm and Europe’s largest fur industry. It was later found to be illegal, and Fredriksen was held accountable by one of her allies in the coalition government even though it was proved that she was unaware of her action’s illegality. Social Liberals (Radikale Venstre) party’s leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen, one of Fredriksen’s allies, threatened to withdraw from the coalition unless she holds early snap elections, following the report on minks culling. The election was supposed to take place on June 2023. After the Social Liberal party’s compulsion, it was shifted to 01 November 2022. She was also criticized for having a centralized authority in her tenure.
Four campaign issues
First, addressing climate issues. The voters are mainly concerned about climate change over other issues. The left had promised to introduce biodiversity law and a carbon tax on agriculture. On 30 October, Prime Minister Fredriksen and 50,000 people gathered for a “People’s Climate March” in Copenhagen. Climate has been one of the top most discussed issues in the election.
Two, migration policy. The Social Democrats have been promoting the “zero refugees” policy, and the government plans to set up an asylum centre in Rwanda to house refugees while their applications are being processed. The restrictive migration policies were introduced following Fredriksen taking the helm of the Social Democrats in 2019, stating that the measures were for state welfare. There is no opposition to the policy, as many parties agree with it.
Three, security concerns. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, Denmark faces more security threats from Russia than in the past three decades. In September and October, the Nord Stream pipelines exploded near the Danish economic zone in the Baltic Sea. The rumoured sabotage had instilled security concerns in the hearts of the people of Denmark. Fredriksen called for a nationwide advertising campaign with the slogan “Safely through uncertain times”.
Four, healthcare, inflation and energy crises. Fredriksen has been appreciated for leading Denmark through the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and energy price crisis without any major issues. She once again campaigned to do the same in the current scenario. To align herself with Rasmussen, she also concentrated on addressing healthcare reforms and mental health issues, which the moderates stresses in their agenda for a coalition.
Fredriksen’s Election challenge
Fredrikson’s call for political unity in Denmark. Fredriksen primarily campaigned on forming a broad coalition across the traditional left-right divide, creating a politically united government to stand against the current international geopolitical uncertainty. She had given her resignation to Queen Margrethe II to dissolve the current cabinet in the hopes of forming a new administration with a broader perspective. Fredriksen had reached out to the leader of the moderate, Rasmussen, to form a coalition that could act as a bridge between the left and the right after the election results were announced. However, the process may take a lot of time due to the disagreement between the left and the right. Fredriksen’s red bloc allies want to form a left-leaning coalition government instead of the broader one. There is a possibility that Fredriksen will be pressured into starting a left-leaning coalition by her allies, going against her campaign wishes.
References
Jon Henley, “Denmark election result keeps Social Democrats at the helm,” The Guardian, 02 November 2022
“Share of votes in the parliamentary election in Denmark 2022,” statistic.com, 09 November 2022
“Results of the Danish general election,” thedanishparliament.dk, 02 November 2022
“Election 2022: Danes head to the polls with outcome in balance,” THE LOCAL dk, 01 November 2022
John Henley, “Danish election: PM may need new party’s support to stay in charge,” The Guardian, 01 November 2022
“Denmark election: Mette Frederiksen's Social Democrats win with 'strongest backing in 20 years, ” euronews, 02 November 2022
“Denmark election: Frederiksen's government hangs in the balance as it battles for centrist votes,” euronews, 02 November 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 261
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 11 November, Russian troops shelled territories in the Chernihiv region and Berslav district in the Kherson region. In Chernihiv, Operation Command “North” reported nine strikes of shelling was fired in Mykolaivka settlement. The shelling did not damage any civilian infrastructure, military equipment nor caused any civilian or military personnel casualties. In Beryslav, the Kherson Regional police reported that the Russian the troops shelled with heavy artillery and hit civilian infrastructure and were destroyed. The number of casualties has not been reported.
On 09 November, in an interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that that the doors for peace talks and negotiations with Russia were “not closed,” and added that Russia had only issued ultimatums with no concrete efforts towards negotiations. Zelenskyy reiterated Ukrainian demands for the return of all occupied lands, rights, freedom, money, and most importantly justice, which according to him is not what the Russians want.
On 11 November, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn in the side-lines of the ASEAN summit in Cambodia. The discussion focused on the demining assistance provided by Cambodia to Japan and included parameters like the specific actors involved in the project and the schedule of the operation. Kuleba added: “In the past, Cambodia suffered from war for a long time, and it has considerable experience in demining. That is, there is expertise, there is equipment, so we will involve them in solving our problems.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 11 November, Kherson Emergency Services reported that the Antonovsky Bridge was destroyed. The agency added: "Two spans of the bridge were destroyed." The Kherson government chairperson Sergey Eliseev initially denied that the bridge was destroyed on 11 November, but later war correspondent Alexander Kots presented footage of the destroyed bridge. He added that the destruction was ignored to the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank to the left bank of the Dnieper river.
On 11 November, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that over 30,000 military personnel and 5,000 units of military armament and equipment had moved to the left bank of the Dnieper river. The military equipment that was in need of repair has also been moved to the left bank. The Ministry of Defence added that all military equipment was transferred with nothing was left behind.
On 11 November, the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov reported that the Russian army’s counter-battery measure has destroyed a unit of US M777 towed howitzers in Kharkov region. Konashenkov reported on the destruction of 32 HIMARS rockets and five HARM anti-radar missiles in the Kherson region, LPR and DPR by the Russian air defence systems. He added that seven unmanned aerial vehicles were downed in LPR and DPR. InLPR a unit of Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers Akatsiya and an ammunition depot of the 28th mechanized brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces were destroyed.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 November, Hungary has been undertaking humanitarian efforts in Transcarpathia and other Western Ukrainian regions since the war began. Hungary’s Parliamentary State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Levente Magyar on his visit to Transcarpathia said: “Hungary is also providing assistance to Transcarpathia in the form of concrete institutional developments.”
On 11 November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused the EU for escalating the Ukraine war and risking the economy through aid, and increased sanctions. In the summit of Turkic nations, Orban appreciated Turkey’s efforts to broker peace in the conflict with a special reference to the Black Sea Grain Deal which according to him reduced the threat of increased migration from vulnerable nations.
On 11 November, Reuters reported that the German government has lent an extra EUR one billion from its 2023 budget to Ukraine, to battle against cyberattacks. The fundwould also entail the protection of civil society in the broader region, including the protection of journalists from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.
On 11 November, Reuters reported that the US looks to buy South Korean artillery shells to send it to Ukraine. The purchase of 100,000 rounds of South Korean 155m artillery shells by the US is suspected to be funded by the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds. The US officials are unsure if the artillery shells will pass US territory while transporting it to Ukraine. This move was welcomed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and said that this decison to send weapons was “indispensible.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 11 November, UN and Russian representatives met in Geneva to discuss the extension of the Black Sea Grain deal. UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths and UN trade chief Rebeca Grynspan met Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin and discussed about Russian demands to restructure the Black Sea Grain deal. UN Geneva spokeswoman Alessandra Vellucci said: “This discussion, it is hoped, should advance progress made in facilitating the unimpeded export of food and fertilizers originating from the Russian Federation to the global markets.” The Black Sea Grain deal is set to end on 19 November and after Russia withdrew from the deal on 29 October, this meeting is essential to ensure food security around the world and prevent a global food crisis. Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “..there is a mutual understanding on the part of our counterparts in the UN. Therefore, work is underway in this direction.”
On 11 November, South Korea’s Defence Ministry reiterated its stance on not providing Ukraine lethal aid. This comes after reports emerged over the US buying its artillery shells for Ukraine. In a statement, the South Korean Defence Ministry said that “confidential” negotiations are underway regarding the sale of ammunition but under the assumption that the US is the end user. The Ministry added: “In order to make up for the shortage of 155mm ammunition inventories in the US, negotiations are ongoing between the US and Korean companies to export ammunition.” Since the conflict began, South Korea has not provided any lethal aid to Ukraine and has only provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
On 11 November, Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry reported that Cambodia in collaboration with Japan will be sending deminers to Ukraine to help train the troops to clear land mines placed by Russia. The Cambodian Mine Action Centre said that it would be sending the first team in December to Ukraine and the second team in early next year. Cambodia has previously collaborated with other war-torn regions to help with demining.
References
“Enemy shells Beryslav district in Kherson region with heavy artillery,” Ukrinform, 11 November 2022
“Russians again shell border areas of Chernihiv region,” Ukrinform, 11 November 2022
“Zelensky Says Open to Talks with Russia,” Kyiv Post, 11 November 2022
“Dmytro Kuleba reported on the preparation of a tripartite demining project with Cambodia and Japan,” mfa.gov.ua, 11 November 2022
“Emergency services confirmed the destruction of Antonovsky Bridge,” Lenta.ru, 11 November 2022
“The Ministry of Defense named the number of Russian military personnel brought to the left bank of the Dnieper,” Lenta.ru, 11 November 2022
“Russian army wipes out platoon of US M777 howitzers in Kharkov Region,” TASS, 11 November 2022
“Russia’s air defenses down Ukraine’s 32 HIMARS, 5 HARM rockets in one day,” TASS, 11 November 2022
“Hungary Extends Humanitarian Aid for Ukraine to Education,” Hungary today, 11 November 2022
“Hungary Issues Warning Over EU's Involvement in Ukraine,” Tasnim News Agency, 11 November 2022
“U.S. in talks to buy South Korean ammunition for Ukraine, official says,” Reuters, 11 November 2022
“Germany allocates extra 1 bln euros to Ukraine cyber-defence, documenting war crimes,” Reuters, 11 November 2022
“UN, Russia hold talks on extending wartime grain deal,” AP News, 11 November 2022
“US to buy South Korea artillery shells ‘for Ukraine’,” Aljazeera, 11 November 2022 “Cambodia to send deminers to help train Ukrainians in clearing land mines,” The Japan News, 11 November 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav, Madhura S Mahesh, and Sandeep Ganesh
FRANCE
France: National strategic review to focus on boosting the defence
On 9 November, the Secretariat-General for National Defense and Security (SGDSN) published its defence strategy report focusing on possible security threats in the Indo-Pacific, China, and 2030 way forward for France's defence. In the report, Russia is seen as an actor undermining the European security and its growing relations with China is observed as "strategic convergence." In terms of China, its aim to overtake the US as super power and weaken West's leadership in the international fora remains the goal. As per the report China's military made France pursue an assertive strategy in the Indo-Pacific, African states and Taiwan Strait. The defence strategy sets the standard to increase the budget of France's defence in 2023-24 with more investments towards hybrid strategies, more cooperation with the UK, and adaptation to Europe's maritime system.
LATVIA
Demographic swing continues in Latvia
On 11 November, The Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia published its provisional data on its population, post covid the death rate in Latvia has come down significantly, yet the country’s population is on decline.There have been about 22,498 deaths registered from January to September, the registered number of births in the same period is 12,221. The birth rate is 8.2 per cent lesser than that of 2021 during the same time. Lativa had a population of 1.89 million in 2020, the population in 2021 was 1.87 million, down by 1.02 per cent in one years' time. Lativa’s population is equivalent to 0.02 per cent of the total world population. One of the reason behind the declining population is that the people from Latvia go to other affluent countries in EU to work there leaving this Baltic country with decreasing population, Latvia has a high mortality rate which adds years of life in the general population. Disregarding the drop-in birth rate, mortality remains high and is almost double the birth rate. (“Latvia's worrying demographic trends continue”, ENG.LSM.Iv, 11 November 2022)
SPAIN
Pedro Sanchez changes the crime of sedition in the penal code to appease the Catalonians
On 11 November, Spain’s coalition government under Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez proposed to replace the sedition law, which had been in Spain’s penal code since 1822. The crime of sedition has put a lot of Catalin in prison. The move to change the bill that reclassifies sedition into “aggravated public disorder” sought to appease the people of the northeastern region of Catalonia following the conflict that stemmed from the failed independence attempt in 2017. Sanchez mainly looks to win the favour of Catalonia’s leftist ERC party to pass the 2023 budget in the parliamentary. The removal of the crime of sedition would allow Catalonians to vote in a referendum without any repressions. (“In nod to Catalonia, Spain's PM seeks to replace sedition in penal code,” Reuters, 11 November 2022)
REGIONAL
The European Commission predicts a recession in the eurozone in the last quarter of 2022
On 11 November, the European Commission released the latest economic forecast predicting that the eurozone will face recession in the winter as inflation steadily increases. The skyrocketing energy prices were found to be the main driver of prolonged inflation, which will increase it to 8.5 per cent in 2022 before crashing down to 6.1 per cent in 2023. The growth prediction for 2023 fell from July’s forecast of 1.4 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Germany is expected to perform the worst in 2023, with the economic output falling by 0.6 per cent. The Commission also predicts a slow economic output till the first quarter of 2023. The hike in energy prices, the cost of living crisis and inflation are expected to put most EU member states into recession in the last three months of 2022. The inflation is set to ease by the spring of 2023 in Europe. (“EU says eurozone set to fall into recession this winter,” Deutsche Welle, 11 November 2022)
Tough border controls inconvenience Slovakia with growing number of asylum seekers
On 10 November, tensions between Slovakia and the Czech Republic rose as the latter increased its border controls with its border with Germany, thus, increasing the number of refugees in Slovakia. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Eduard Heger took it to the EU to challenge the usage of border controls by the Czech Republic. Slovakia argues that the controls breached the EU’s principle of the visa-free Schengen zone. Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakusan confirmed that the meeting between Heger and the Czech Republic Prime Minister Petr Fiala resulted in the Czech agreement to relax the border controls for the locals. Heger and Fiala also agreed on speeding up the checks on the Slovakian and the Czech nationals. The Czech defended the border controls as a measure to mitigate the increased influx of refugees from Syria. (Radovan Stoklasa and Jason Hovet, “Czech border controls blocking migrants' route to Germany frustrate Slovakia,” Reuters, 11 November 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Turkey to represent the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit
On 11 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will represent the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit at Samarkand. The OTS members include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and Hungary are observer nations of the group. Erdogan has pushed for closer ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian countries for years and hopes to take advantage of the diminishing Russian influence in these ex-Soviet states to build closer relations. After the start of the Ukraine war, Central Asian countries especially Khazakistan have reached out to make new alliances to reduce dependency on Russia. (“Turkey seeks Central Asia inroads with Russia distracted,” EURACTIV, 11 November 2022)
Lithuania a next hotspot for semiconductor production
On 07 November, Taiwan announced its decision to invest EUR 10 million in building semiconductor chip technology in collaboration with Lithuania’s electronic manufacturer Teltonika. The head of Taiwanese representative office in Lithuania, Eric Huang said: “It is because Taiwan would like to work with Lithuania together to strengthen the resilience of our democratic supply chain in the face of coercion by autocracies." The deepening relations between Lithuania and Taiwan has been a bigger tension for the Chinese, Beijing also downgraded its relationship with Lithuania and banned imports after Taiwan opened a de facto embassy in its capital. Lithuania a former Soviet republic has a strong anti-China sentiment. (“Taiwan to invest 10 mln euros towards chip production in Lithuania,” Reuters, 10 November 2022)